Facebook: Countdown to IPO
It has been rumored for quite a long time, yesterday it was finally announced that Facebook will go public. Exactly eight years after Mark Zuckerberg founded Facebook on Wednesday, February 1, 2004, the social network submitted its IPO application to the US SEC. Not only traders are excited about the most spectacular IPO of all time. There is rarely any medium where Facebook is not or was not in the headlines. In the US, the move by Facebook was reason enough to interrupt the regular broadcast schedule to break the news to viewers.
Hard facts: US$1 bn in profit, US$3.7 bn in turnover, 845 mn active users
Returns on the IPO are estimated to amount to US$5 bn. While an exact valuation of the Internet giant cannot be made on basis of speculations, rumors have it that the company is worth US$80-100 bn. The date for the IPO is also still a secret, but observers expect it to be between April and June. According to the company’s documentation, the turnover of the world’s largest social network was US$3.7 bn in 2011, most of it was generated through online advertising (US$3.154 bn). Compared to the 2010 figure – US$1.974 bn – this means a plus of 88%. In 2011, the company’s profit was US$1 bn (+65%). Facebook was not making profits until 2009. In that year profits hit US$229 mn. In 2010 the figure read US$606 mn. The figures for the number of users which Facebook delivered with it’s IPO application are stunning: There are 845 mn active users on a monthly average, 483 mn people access Facebook daily and 425 mn people go on Facebook via mobile. 2.7 bn ‘Likes’ and comments are posted every day.
User activity on the world’s largest social network
Source: Facebook IPO
Betting on the future
Undoubtedly, a lot of money is at stake for Facebook, shareholders and banks. US investment banks Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital and JP Morgan are contracted to make Facebook go public for US$500 mn. There are heated debates around the question if US$ 1 bn in profits can really be translated into US$100 bn of net worth. Facebook’s IPO is often compared to that of Google in 2004: The IPO of the search engine giant generated US$ 1.7 bn in returns, which translated into the company’s valuation of US$23 bn. Google’s current market capitalization is at approx. US$190 bn, profits at US$9.6 bn.
Between euphoria and skepticism
Potential investors are advised to think twice since expert opinion is somewhere in between extreme euphoria and skepticism. German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung printed a very concise pro-contra analysis on p. 33 in today’s issue. As per the newspaper, the most important reason for the company’s high valuation is that Facebook is a milestone in the way millions of people communicate with each other every day, seemingly nobody can live without it anymore. When all the user data is used to generate profits, advertising revenues will sky-rocket. Facebook is an ideal platform for companies to generate business. There are no limits for growth phantasies. The arguments against the validity of such a high valuation are built exactly on these exaggerated visions for business growth and the fear of a second dot.com bubble. On top of this, Facebook does not benefit from growth in newly industrialized countries such as China. Problems regarding data privacy and patent issues will emerge.
Google will be measured on Facebook
The industry’s paper SAI Business Insider brought up an interesting comparison between Google and Facebook, showing both comapanies’ development during their first seven years in the Internet business. In this, Facebook’s turnover figures are significantly lower than those of Google. The article in SAI explains the different development with the fact that Google has found it’s own “business magic” in tailored advertising, which Facebook is still lacking. The question for potential stock investors is whether or not Facebook will find its own certain kind of magic to satisfy all the expectations for growth.
Can Facebook uphold its promises for growth with the largest IPO the Internet business has ever seen?
Source: SAI Business Insider
University of the future: Free-of-charge online lectures by elite universities
Sebastian Thrun, Stanford professor emeritus, presented nothing less than his vision of a ‘democratized higher education’ at the recent 2012 Digital Life Design (DLD) Conference in Munich. It all started with an experiment: Thrun, an expert for artificial intelligence and researcher at Google, offered his Stanford standard curriculum seminar on the ‘Introduction to Artificial Intelligence’ online for free. The results were overwhelming: 160,000 students from 190 countries worldwide enrolled and attended the three-month seminar. At the end of the term, 23,000 students passed the seminar, 248 even with 100% of all points. The only downside was, that the attendance certificate granted to students was not one of Stanford, unless the student was already admitted there.
stanford engineering everywhere: High reach for free-of-charge online lectures held by renowned professors at Stanford University
Stanford is one of most renowned universities in the US. Already in 2008, the university offered lectures free-of-charge for everyone. Under the label stanford engineering everywhere, the University’s software engineering department for example offers various classes online. More online classes can be found HERE. Starting Spring 2012, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) will make available free-of-charge classes via its interactive platform M.I.T.x. Students that successfully completed the class will also receive an official certificate from the MIT.
In 2012, Stanford University will offer more free-of-charge seminars held by renowned lecturers online
Many top players among the international universities make already use of digital media, in order to attract the brightest students. Most of them refer to iTunes U(niversity), the education section in Apple’s iTunes store. Since 2009, Munich’s LMU University is also connected to the Apple store, offering free downloads of digital contents and results for lectures, research and the University in general. Since it’s launch, the University’s portal has seen 12 million downloads – a clear indicator for high demand in digital education contents. Another example for digital education is tele-Task by the Hasso-Plattner-Institute for Software System Technology. Many other German universities are just in experimental stages.
Founding of Udacity.com: A start-up business to democratize higher education
Thrun said during his speech at the DLD, that this one seminar he offered online for free has had more influence on education than his entire previous career. The whole seminar can be seen on YouTube. Because of the overwhelming results, he founded the education platform udacity.com together with other colleagues, where the most up-to-date knowledge and research results are to be made available to students from all over the world for free. Equality in education for all under the slogan: ‘Democratizing Higher Education’. Among the contributors are some of the world’s most renowned lecturers and students from all over the world. One of the earliest topics was how to program a search engine or a ‘Robotic Car’.
University of the future: Equal education for all on udacity.com
Conclusion: It is about time that education institutions recognize the value of modern technology and employ it actively. Universities should consider the potentials of digital technologies and how they could enhance teaching. It is expected, that with the introduction of online lectures for free the rules of the game will change somewhat. But the initial investment is quite high. According to the NY Times, the MIT alone eats up millions of Dollar for its new digital platform. The challenge for professor Thrun is to make his platform valuable enough even without the brand ‘Stanford’ in order to survive on a highly dynamic market.
Chinese New Year: 2012 – Year of the Dragon
2012 is the year of the dragon.
It represents not only the former symbol of the Chinese emperor – nowadays, the dragon is still a famous talisman in China. The year of the dragon is affected by innovation, enthusiasm and strength. Ambitious goals can be achieved and major projects will be implemented successfully.
We want to thank our clients, our employees and service providers for good co-operation, exciting projects and the confidence placed in us in 2011. Together with you, we are looking forward to a fascinating and promising year 2012.
Case Study: Four Seasons’ Digital Media Strategy
In a study recently published by world-renowned hotel chain Four Seasons, digital media were hailed as an absolute ‘must-have’ for marketing and branding activities in luxury travels. For a relaunch of the hotel chain’s website, the company had surveyed their target groups world-wide asking for the expectations and needs of travellers. The results were not only published in a report titled ‘The 2012 Luxury Trend Report: The Luxury Traveler in the New Digital World‘, but also contributed in the development of the company’s own digital marketing strategy.
50% of the marketing budget goes to the digital media
The key point was to have the experiences traveller’s had in the real world reflected in the digital realm. Accordingly, about half of the marketing budget was allocated to the digital media. The hotel chain integrated social platforms like Facebook (approx. 220,000 fans via various accounts), Twitter (approx. 185,000 follower via various accounts) and Google+, as well as own platforms like blogs or mobile. According to the published figures, online purchases grew by 10% in 2011, Tablet sales even grew by 200%. It is estimated, that the growth figures will be even higher in 2012.
“As luxury consumers embrace digital media on a larger scale, luxury brands that do not commit to a holistic digital media strategy will not survive; it is no longer a nice-to-have but an essential pillar of branding and marketing”, says Susan Helstab, Executive VP Marketing, Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts
Website becomes marketing hub embedding customer reviews from social platforms
It is quite innovative how user-generated content was embedded on the hotel’s own website. Reviews coming from TripAdvisor, Twitter or Facebook are posted on the respective hotel’s page and linked directly. This bears certain risks, which many luxury brands do not dare to take. However, the posting of contributions seems to be not in real-time, yet. The below is a short video on the relaunch of the Four Seasons website, the marketing hub for all of the company’s digital activities.
New website of the Four Seasons directly embeds customer’s reviews on TripAdvisor, Facebook and Twitter
Google TV: A new try for the TV of the future
Last week’s CES in Las Vegas was one of three big consumer electronics exhibitions in 2012. Smartphones, tablets, ultrabooks and online entertainment services were the most prominent topics at the exhibition. Television of the future also continues to be a hot topic: Innovations like ultra HD TV or smartphones acting as remote controls were shown. The most interesting fact though is, that in terms of TV Google becomes a ‘can’t-live-without’ factor. Google used the CES very well as a stage to push its endeavors in TV realms. The Internet giant has been trying to set foot in the TV business already since 2010. Even though the features of Google TV sound promising, such as an integrated web browser, enabling users to browse online for contents on TV or the Internet, the company did not have much success. More than 150 apps were developed specifically for TV application. Together with a number of other Android-based smartphone apps this was done with the intention to upgrade the TV experience at home.
At the beginning of December 2011, Eric Schmidt announced at the LeWeb Conference: “By the summer of 2012, the majority of the televisions you see in stores will have Google TV embedded”. Many dismissed his statement as being outright crazy. PC appliances manufacturer Logitech had just terminated the cooperation with Google at that time and everything looked like it is going to be a mega flop.
But it seems that Google wants to greatly push the TV development in 2012, which is why a number of old and new partnerships were announced at the CES: Sony, an integral partner for Google, will continue to be on board. LG and Samsung will join, so will Taiwanese chip manufacturer MediaTek. While Samsung did not present any Google-TV-devices, LG already showcased its newest Google-TV developments and plans to integrate Google-TV in all TV sets sold in the US in 2012. According to Bloomberg, LG plans to develop a flagship TV device in Nexus-style as a platform for Google.
The fight over the TV of the future: Will users go for Google TV?
According to Germany’s Federal Association for Information Technology, Telecommunications and New Media (BITKOM), 5 million smart TV will be sold in 2012 (up 35% compared to last year), leading to a boom of Internet-ready TV devices in Germany. Smart TVs are TV devices that are connected to the Internet and feature apps like smartphones, thus enabling users to access Internet-based services. If the forecasts by BITKOM are to be trusted, every second TV set sold in Germany in 2012 would be such a smart TV.
Conclusion: Up to now, we do not know when Google TV will be launched in Europe. But the competition over the TV of the future gets more exciting: Apple’s iTV is rumored to be launched in 2012 as well. Both Google and Apple do have the necessary resources to distribute their own systems on the consumer market.
Social Search and Social SEO: Google personalizes web search
When Google+ was launched, Google was not getting tired to underscore that Google+ will not simply be another social network. This week, the company announced that Google+ information will be part of its English web search. Posts, interests and reviews from friends will thus be more valuable, making the single user more important than ever before. The new search algorithm called ‘Search, plus Your World’ also integrates personal data such as photos or private content on Google+ in the search. “We’re transforming Google into a search engine that understands not only content, but also people and relationships”.
Individualized search results
Integrating Google+ into search algorithm has the potential to change the way we use the Internet
Companies advised to have social SEO on their agenda
The boundaries between web search and social web are getting increasingly blurry. The seamless integration of Google+ in Google’s websearch is a marketing factor that should not be underestimated, especially when comparing it to fan pages on Facebook. Google’s search engine market share in Germany reaches 85% and is at 65% in the US. The chance to be found on the web dramatically increases with a well-planned positioning on the Internet. Companies are well advised to encourage users to share their experiences with the brand online with others. However, some see the recent move by Google with skepticism, especially those who seek to defend data privacy and neutrality of the web. The digital industry’s magazine t3n already foresees a ‘Social Networks War’ within the tech industry: Twitter massively criticizes Google, having invoked a ‘Black Friday’ for the Internet, because up to now all breaking news were communicated via Twitter. Now it will be much harder to find those news. Facebook, too, will be not too happy about Google’s move, since the information on the world’s biggest social network is not included in Google’s search algorithm.
The Toggle Button: Optional personalized web search, soon to be introduced to Germany, too
Conclusion: Currently, personalized web search is still an optional feature and can be deactivated by the user at any time. Future will tell in how far personalized web search adds value to Google’s search results. But the increasing importance of Google+ for Google’s web search makes it apparent for companies to act and put social SEO on their Internet agenda.
2012: Year of the Smartphone
Exactly five years ago, on January 9, 2007, Steve Jobs presented the world’s first iPhone marking a milestone in the development of smartphones. Even though there were some road bumps in the beginning, Jobs succeeded in the following years to create a whole new market which will be a decisive factor for growth in 2012 according to sources at German market researcher GfK and the consumer electronic industry’s association in the US, CEA.
Germany: 43% of all mobile phones are smartphones
In 2011 the smartphone market in Germany saw rapid growth, that more and more ate away from the sales business with other mobile phones. 11.8 million smartphones were sold in Germany in 2011 according to the Federal Association for Information Technology, Telecommunications and New Media (BITKOM). This means a plus of 31% compared to the year before. 43% of all mobile phones sold in Germany are smartphones. Sales share has already reached two Thirds, since those phones are more expensive. Sales rose by 13% to reach 4.1 billion Euro. Sales figures for non-smartphones were down by 19% with 15.6 million units sold.
Source: BITKOM 2012 based on recent data by the European Information Technology Observatory (EITO)
Worldwide trend: Smartphones decisive factor for growth in consumer electronics in 2012
In 2012 the worldwide sales figure for consumer electronics will surpass the one billion Dollar threshold, reaching US$1,038 billion (up 5%). This is about US$45 billion more than in 2011. Smartphones are like a turbo booster for growth: According to the industry’s association in the US CEA, smartphones contribute to the sales growth for consumer electronics by 22%, followed by notebooks with 15%. “Today, consumers from every corner of the globe crave the latest tech innovations,” says Steve Koenig, Director Industry Analysis for CEA. “Rising consumer demand for mobile connected devices underpins the growth in global retail sales of CE we’re projecting this year.” Sales growth for other products like TVs or normal mobile phones has stagnated or shows a downward trend. Not surprisingly, this year’s CES in Las Vegas will feature a lot of new smartphones.
Resolutions for the New Year: Getting it done with digital support?
Losing weight, do more sports, finally make some time to archive all digital photos, alas it all sounds so easy to make up these resolutions for the new year, but we all know what will be the final outcome most of the time. Maybe digital fitness gadgets like Garmin Connect, Nike+ or Dailymile help to boost our willpower and finally make it happen?
Scientists at Yale found out that people who make use of digital helpers are more likely to succeed in reaching their targets. New platforms offer radically new approaches: Users commit themselves to reaching their targets by putting their money or reputation at stake. Well, chances are that people will hold on at least until February.
stickK – Reach your goal or pay
www.stickK.com is a platform founded in 2007 allowing users to set their own targets by making a contract with nobody else than themselves. The platform offers two ways of ‘encouragement’ to hold individuals to account: Either financially by depositing money or socially by risking the person’s reputation. As for the former, users deposit a certain amount of money and determine a way to provide proof for them reaching their target. A doctor’s statement may be sufficient for proofing a loss in weight, regular visits at the gym may be signed off by a trainer etc. Individuals reaching their target will get their money back. In case the target is not reached, the deposited money will go to a charitable organization. For those who like to punish themselves, they may offer to transfer their money to an organization, club or person they detest, like the rival local football club or political adversaries. There are no limits to selecting beneficiaries. In case some want to go for the latter alternative and choose to hold themselves accountable socially, the necessary pressure is coerced by emails to family, friends or colleagues rather than through money.
www.stickK.com
K means the contract people conclude with themselves in order to reach targets set in resolutions
Researches at Yale seem to be right: 78% of subscribers succeeded in reaching their target with the help of digital gadgets
Individuals subscribing to Gympact essentially make a contract with an iPhone app. Money is used as motivating factor to reach one’s own targets. Who does not reach the target, will have to pay: Monthly fees of lazy subscribers will go directly to those who put in more efforts.
Corner shop of the future in Japan: AR vending machine with face recognition
In Japan you can find vending machines at almost every corner, even in the most remote places. Japan is truly a vending machine paradise. Some of those machines sell even the most bizarre things. They have already become an integral part of Japan’s service culture. Vending machine technology becomes increasingly complex and sophisticated: Different machines are communicating with each other or with the distributor’s headquarters. Among other benefits, this greatly facilitates maintenance, as it is easier to check if the machine needs to be refilled. State-of-the art machines even communicate with users, showing ads or news on a built-in display. According to recent news by Techcrunch, Japanese tech-corporations Sanden Corporation and Okaya Electronics worked together with Intel to develop the ‘vending machine 2.0’ featuring a 65” see-through display and face recognition. [Note: STD’s are computerized systems, that work with translucent displays: they feature a transparent projection surface, which make it possible to visually link real objects with computer-generated and animated information]
So what is new about this prototype, that still lacks a proper name? The vending machine will recognize the consumer’s sex and age via the face recognition device. Even before the consumer actually hits any of the buttons or throws in coins, a drink, make-up, perfume scent or other relevant advertisement can be displayed and recommended to the consumer. The face recognition device is also able to remember faces, thereby making it possible to recommend a previously purchased item upon the next interaction with the same customer. On the display a lot of detailed information on the desired product can be presented. This makes the prototype of these sort of vending machines predestined for selling goods with a higher price tag and/or that require much more explanation. “In this demo, we’re suggesting that vending machines could be used to purchase luxury items, such as cosmetics and wine. The machine also has a public safety mode in times of emergency, which shows information such as evacuation route … this machine could be used in lots of ways, depending on customers’ imagination. It has a great many possibilities, so we’d like to get ideas from everyone, rather than just using it as a regular vending machine” (via Diginfo TV). The target of employing these machines is to upgrade the ordinary purchasing process into a real event. For Germany this sounds more like technology in the year of 2033, rather than in 2012.
Next Generation Vending Machine: Communicating with the vending machine replaces communication with sales staff
Video provided by Diginfo TV
In Europe on the other hand, some vending machines embark on retro-chic, such as this vending machine from Austria selling fresh milk. The machine is mounted at the façade of and connected directly to the place of production – the cowshed.
Alternative vending machine made in Europe
Guaranteed fresh milk: Alpenhof’s fresh milk vending machine from Austria
aquarius goes app – Bring aquarius to your iPhone
Much to the delight of our aquarius teams in Shanghai, Munich and Hong Kong, as well as our clients and all those interested in digital developments in Asia, our aquarius app was officially launched on December 1, 2011. This weekend the app will hit the 100 downloads mark.
Developed by the team in our brand-new Shanghai office, the app introduces our company’s services, our team members in Shanghai as well as key projects we successfully completed in the past.
Highlights of the app are market studies and insights in pdf format wrapped in the app, that help interested audiences to better understand the digital media landscape in Asia regarding mobile, online and social media channels. With the inbuilt Asia Digital Index calculator, readers can easily check on key figures from the past, present and future forecasts to grasp the trends in Asia.
As a treat to visitors of Shanghai, the team of aquarius Shanghai put together their personal choices for going out for a drink, dinner or simply relaxing after a long day in the office.
Show us your support and download our app here or search for it in iTunes using the search term ‘aquarius agency’. Happy browsing!
